{"id":7208,"date":"2023-12-05T14:43:17","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T14:43:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.imcconsulting.it\/non-categorizzato\/la-bolla-immobiliare-cinese-mette-a-rischio-anche-il-resto-del-mondo\/"},"modified":"2025-12-19T17:02:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T17:02:34","slug":"is-the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-a-global-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.imcconsulting.it\/en\/blog\/sector-scenarios\/is-the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-a-global-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Chinese Real Estate Bubble a global threat?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><em>The Chinese real estate bubble is only the most recent in a long series of crises that have affected global markets over the past century, from the U.S. to Japan.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Predicting whether a real estate market is in a bubble or at high risk of one is extremely difficult. Still, there are certain indicators that signal caution.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>From the construction boom to the collapse of the Evergrande giant: let\u2019s examine what\u2019s happening in China and how the Beijing government is responding.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>In today\u2019s hyper-connected world, the effects of a crisis in one country can quickly spill over into others. That said, for now, the risk of a global housing bubble appears to be easing.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>From the European Central Bank\u2019s warnings to the risks tied to \u201cshadow banks\u201d: here\u2019s why it\u2019s worth keeping your guard up.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Inside the Dragon\u2019s bubble<\/h2>\n<p><em>China is near<\/em>. So went the title of a well-known film from the 1960s. But just how near is it, really?<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s real estate bubble has been unsettling Beijing for some time now \u2014 and raising concern around the world about its possible ripple effects. <strong>The collapse of the Evergrande giant<\/strong> &#8211; along with worrying signs from Country Garden and Zhongrong &#8211; has shaken the markets. As the Chinese government attempts to \u201cdeflate\u201d the bubble, many are wondering whether China\u2019s real estate crisis might have a global impact in such an interconnected world. For now, <strong>the risk in Europe remains low<\/strong>, partly due to inflation. But the real variable to watch is the <em>time factor<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2>What is a Real Estate bubble? Definitions and past cases<\/h2>\n<p>The Chinese real estate bubble is merely the latest in a long series of market crises that have shaped the global economy over the past century \u2014 <strong>a recurring theme in financial history<\/strong>. Among the most notable examples:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Florida in the 1920s<\/li>\n<li>Japan in the late 1980s and early 1990s<\/li>\n<li>The U.S. in the early 2000s, which contributed to the global financial crisis of 2007\u20132009 and impacted housing prices across most developed economies\u00b9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In economic terms, a bubble refers to an <strong>abnormal increase in the price<\/strong> of an asset that is not justified by market fundamentals. It\u2019s typically accompanied by high trading volumes, followed by a dramatic collapse when the bubble bursts. This phenomenon is often amplified &#8211; sometimes even accelerated &#8211; by financial speculation.<\/p>\n<p>In simple terms, a housing bubble begins <strong>when demand in the real estate market spikes<\/strong>, driving up property prices far beyond justifiable levels. On one hand, investors rush in seeking profits. On the other, weak or stagnant economic growth can lead to a growing imbalance between supply and demand. <strong>As property prices outpace the real value of the assets<\/strong>, average buyers are priced out of the market. Eventually, prices crash and the bubble bursts &#8211; often <strong>triggering broader financial turmoil<\/strong>. Eventually, the bubble bursts \u2014 leading to a steep drop in property values and <strong>triggering wider financial consequences<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>The Real Estate Bubble and the \u201ctime factor\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>One key feature of real estate bubbles &#8211; whether in China or elsewhere &#8211; is <strong>how hard they are to predict<\/strong>. Not because analysts lack insight or experience, but because identifying real estate bubbles in advance is inherently complex. Most observers only recognize them once they are already formed &#8211; or are about to burst. China is a case in point. There are indicators that should raise red flags: imbalances in the real economy, an overinflated construction sector, and a widening gap between real estate prices and average income. Still, determining whether a market is in a bubble \u2014 or at serious risk of becoming one \u2014 is a major challenge. It requires a thorough understanding of the current landscape and <strong>informed predictions<\/strong> about how the market will evolve. The time factor plays a big role. Unlike stock market bubbles, real estate bubbles <strong>don\u2019t reveal themselves in real time<\/strong>. The consequences of transactions \u2014 such as property purchases and title deeds \u2014 often only become evident after a delay. This time lag makes it harder to spot the warning signs and slows down recognition of the bubble itself.<\/p>\n<h2>China\u2019s Real Estate Bubble: What\u2019s Going On<\/h2>\n<p>The time lag is particularly evident in China\u2019s case. While the crisis is making headlines today, warning signs have been sounding for at least a couple of years. Real estate bubbles share certain characteristics, but each case is unique.\u00a0 In China\u2019s case, the past three decades \u2014 and especially the last fifteen years \u2014 have seen an unprecedented <strong>construction boom<\/strong>, driven by economic and demographic growth. This has led to massive urbanization.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>According to a 2019 survey by the People\u2019s Bank of China, home value makes up 59% of total household wealth. Mortgage loans account for 12% of the total. These are similar to figures seen in the U.S. before the 2008 subprime crisis and in Japan in the 1980s.<\/li>\n<li>Across multiple sources\u00b2, real estate is estimated to represent between 18% and 30% of China\u2019s GDP &#8211; closer to the upper end of that range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Excessive demand<\/strong> fueled China\u2019s property sector to over-leverage. Developers took on debt, shifting part of the risk directly onto buyers. At the same time, local governments approved an ever-growing number of construction projects \u2014 often regardless of actual demand \u2014 because land sales and leasing generate over a third of their total tax revenue.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, <strong>the real estate sector expanded uncontrollably, setting off a kind of vicious cycle<\/strong>. In short, China\u2019s property market relies on economic growth to manage its debt, while the broader economy, in turn, depends on a booming real estate sector to keep growing.<\/p>\n<h2>COVID-19\u2019s impact and the Evergrande Crisis<\/h2>\n<p>China\u2019s real estate <strong>troubles began surfacing in the second half of 2021<\/strong>. Home sales slowed, partly due to economic uncertainty, partly due to pandemic restrictions.<\/p>\n<p>Slower sales meant <strong>reduced cash flow for heavily indebted developers<\/strong> &#8211; most notably Evergrande, which filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. in August, burdened with an estimated debt of over $300 billion. Chinese banks began cutting back on mortgage lending in response to tighter regulations, causing construction to slow dramatically and <strong>sparking protests and mortgage payment boycotts<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Today, most analysts agree that the Chinese real estate bubble is gradually deflating. This is largely due to stricter regulation introduced by the Beijing government to manage debt issues. Many believe that China has the resources to avoid a short-term crash and is prepared to accept significant economic and social costs to achieve long-term structural improvements.<\/p>\n<h2>Risk of contagion outside China? Not exactly\u2026<\/h2>\n<p>So, back to our original question: how close is China? The real estate bubble is, of course, a domestic issue for the country. Still, in a hyper-connected world, a crisis in one nation can send shockwaves across others. Is there a real estate bubble risk in Italy or Europe? What lies ahead for the global market?<\/p>\n<p>According to UBS\u2019s latest <em>Global Real Estate Bubble Index<\/em>\u00b3, <strong>the risk is declining worldwide<\/strong>. The index, which analyses residential property prices in 25 major cities globally, shows that real estate market imbalances have significantly decreased. Only Zurich and Tokyo remain in the \u201cbubble risk\u201d category (compared to nine cities in 2022). Milan, notably, is considered fairly valued. From mid-2022 to mid-2023, <strong>real<\/strong> <strong>house prices dropped<\/strong> by an average of 5% across the surveyed cities &#8211; and <strong>further declines are expected<\/strong>. UBS attributes this shift to the current economic climate, particularly the <strong>surge in inflation<\/strong> and interest rates following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<h2>Staying alert<\/h2>\n<p>All good, then? Well, almost. The \u201ctime factor\u201d still matters, and it remains difficult to predict exactly when and how a bubble might burst. In Europe, subtle signs of an emerging bubble persist beneath the surface. In its <em>Financial Stability Review<\/em>\u2074 published last July, the <strong>European Central Bank issued a stern<\/strong> <strong>warning<\/strong> about the real estate market, pointing to \u201cclear signs of vulnerability\u201d in the sector. It cited \u201cdeclining market liquidity and price corrections\u201d as key concerns. While the focus is more on commercial real estate than residential, it\u2019s still a situation that requires vigilance. <strong>Especially considering the potential risks posed by so-called shadow banks<\/strong> &#8211; whose exposure to real estate markets remains difficult, if not impossible, to quantify.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>NOTE<br \/>\n<strong>\u00b9 For further reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.consob.it\/web\/investor-education\/crisi-finanziaria-del-2007-2009\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Housing Bubble and the 2007\u20132009 Financial Crisis in the U.S.<\/a>, Consob<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u00b2 Sources: K.S. Rogoff and Y. Yang (2020), Peak China Housing, NBER Working Paper 27697; CaixaBank Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; The People\u2019s Bank of China<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u00b3 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/media\/display-page-ndp\/en-20230920-grebi-2023.html?caasID=CAAS-ActivityStream\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u2074 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/pub\/financial-stability\/fsr\/html\/ecb.fsr202305~65f8cb74d7.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Financial Stability Review<\/a>, May 2023, European Central Bank (ECB)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Chinese real estate bubble is only the most recent in a long series of crises that have affected global markets over the past century, from the U.S. to Japan. Predicting whether a real estate market is in a bubble or at high risk of one is extremely difficult. Still, there are certain indicators that&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5617,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"iawp_total_views":7,"footnotes":""},"categories":[74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sector-scenarios"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is the Chinese Real Estate Bubble a global threat? - IMC Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Chinese real estate bubble continues to trend as a hot topic. 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